Income Tax THE Issue In Recent Statewide Elections

November 6, 2002

The morning after the elections, the mainstream press and the income tax-leaning commentators on TV and radio were making their case that the income tax issue had nothing to do with the outcome.   A closer examination proves otherwise.   Understand that many of the state senators and legislators who voted for the income tax did so knowing they were in safe seats.   Otherwise, they would not have taken such a risky position.   Still, the income tax took many of them out and was the central issue in many races where anti-income taxers prevailed.

There were 45 supporters of Jimmy Naifeh’s income tax plan.   Of those 45, 5 did not seek re-election, in part because of their vote.   Of the rest, 8 were defeated, 3 of those in the primary, and 2 have died.   When the dust settled in District 81, Speaker Naifeh had managed to squeak by with only 5 points more than Retired Air Force Colonel Tony Lopez who made the income tax the centerpiece of his campaign.   This close race, in a redrawn district designed to make Naifeh even stronger along with his very deep pockets, points to the lack of support for the income tax.   Also, keep in mind that Naifeh was unopposed in the primary and the general election until Lopez decided to challenge him by qualifying for the November ballot in a write-in campaign.

The central fight in the senate was over Bob Rochelle’s seat.   Rochelle chose to pull a Torricelli once his internal polling showed him that he was going to get plastered by Mae Beavers.   Rochelle, long the state income tax advocate in the senate, dropped out of the race as Beavers, an anti-income tax leader in the house, built up steam.   Rochelle’s hand-picked replacement, Sherry Fisher, used the same tactics as Rochelle when she swore up and down that she opposed the income tax, despite her previous statements to the contrary and heavy donations from pro-income tax mucky-mucks.   Fortunately, the voters saw through the ruse.   Her extraordinarily fallacious ads attacking Beavers ended up backfiring.

Naifeh, in the meantime, poured thousands of dollars into other races across the state trying to defeat state representative Donna Rowland and newcomers Susan Lynn and Phillip Johnson.   All three overcame the onslaught and carried the night.

So, where does that leave us now?   It’s hard to give an exact count of   pro-income taxers versus anti-income taxers.   What’s for certain is the pro-income taxers are much further away from their goal than they were before the election.   The lack of Bob Rochelle in the senate leaves a leadership void for the movement there and no one seems willing to pick up that hot potato and run with it.

In the House, it’s likely that Mr. Naifeh will find himself deposed as speaker when the next session begins because of his position on the income tax.   The few Republicans who supported the income tax in the house fared worse than the Democrats.   A total of 8 Republicans voted for the tax.   Only 3 will be returning.   That means it’s highly unlikely that income tax supporter Steve McDaniel will remain Republican Leader.

Is the income tax really dead?   Well, it’s never going to be dead until the people of the state vote in a constitutional amendment making their wishes unambiguous.   Until then, the wild card will be Phil Bredesen.   With his propensity to spend tax dollars will he be able to resist the golden vault of money waiting behind the income tax door?   We’ll be watching.   Oh, believe you me, we’ll be watching.